Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/1359Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 15/1550Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 14/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 15/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 110
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 022/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 012/015-010/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/30
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/40