Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 14/1310Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 14/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 14/1643Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 103
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 029/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 016/022-013/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 30/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 70/50/30