NOAA SWPC Space Wether Outlook #22-15 2022 April 11 0231 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/0241Z from Region 2978 (S17W0*). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 10/1350Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 10/0248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 10/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 101
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 098/095/095
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 011/012-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20