Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0131Z from Region 2985 (S20E16). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 07/0510Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 111
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 108/108/105
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 009/012-010/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/25
Minor Storm 15/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/30