Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/0758Z from Region 2978 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 05/0645Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2903 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 122
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 124/122/120
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 014/020-019/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 25/30/10
Major-severe storm 05/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/70/40