Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1109Z from Region 2978 (S15E75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 27/1028Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 27/0723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (30 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 130
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 129/129/129
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 013/015-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/15
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/25/20