Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/1242Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 22/1258Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Mar, 24 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 106
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 010/012-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/30