Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/0413Z from Region 2965 (N26W68). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (22 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 19/2043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 094
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/095/092
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 013/015-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/25