Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 10/1935Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 10/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8967 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 127
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/15/15