Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0917Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 28/1728Z. Total IMF reached 52 nT at 28/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -30 nT at 28/0356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 099
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 102/105/105
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25