Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 25/0535Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 897 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 096
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 095/094/093
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 007/008-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/40