Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 24/0443Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 917 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 092
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/005-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20