Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 21/1154Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 098
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 102/102/105
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/15