Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 20/0407Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 20/1651Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20/0058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 20/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 093
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 096/102/102
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 012/012-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/25