Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (19 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 17/2203Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/1726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4650 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 093
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 093/096/102
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 009/010-011/018-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/40
Minor Storm 10/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/65/60