Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/0518Z from Region 2943 (S20W37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 15/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7941 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 114
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 110/110/108
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15