Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/0844Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 12/0459Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 428 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (15 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 111
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 108/108/105
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/012-009/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/15