Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1742Z from Region 2940 (N17W82). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2047Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 11/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6612 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 113
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 110/108/108
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 013/015-007/010-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/35
Minor Storm 25/10/30
Major-severe storm 05/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/05
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/65