Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 08/2145Z from Region 2939 (S17W44). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/1233Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10188 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 126
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 120/118/110
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 018/025-016/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/20
Minor Storm 35/20/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 75/60/25