Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/1239Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6345 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 127
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 125/122/120
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 006/005-010/014-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/45/40
Minor Storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 15/60/70