Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 04/1551Z from Region 2936 (N17W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (05 Feb, 06 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (07 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 04/0029Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/0707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4014 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (05 Feb, 06 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 35/35/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 130
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 132/128/122
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 018/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 020/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/018-014/016-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/40