Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/1311Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 01/2057Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/1112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2203 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 129
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 027/045-012/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/10
Minor Storm 40/10/01
Major-severe storm 30/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/20
Major-severe storm 85/40/15