Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 January 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 20/0601Z from Region 2929 (N08W88). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (21 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 19/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 20/0839Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 20/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 20/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 099
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 095/093/091
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 008/008-009/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/50
