Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 19/0627Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/0112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3588 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 105
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 102/098/094
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/014-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/25