Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/0854Z from Region 2932 (N32E60). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (16 Jan) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 15/1944Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 14/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 14/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 116
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 110/108/108
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 012/015-015/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/30