Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 14/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 110
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/018-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 65/70/50