Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/1142Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 13/1536Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 106
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 106/108/110
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-011/014-018/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor Storm 01/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/65/70