Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 12/1609Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 219 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 103
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 104/106/108
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-006/005-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/65