Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/0838Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 11/0133Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 123 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 100
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 102/102/104
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20