Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 10/0650Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 102
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 102/105/110
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20