Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0022Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 08/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 08/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 102
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 102/102/105
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20