Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/2246Z from Region 2924 (S31E20). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at07/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 07/0734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 821 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 107
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 110/112/112
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/005-011/012-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40