Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (07 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 06/0715Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 910 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 094
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 094/096/096
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40