Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class or M-class flare on day one (04 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 03/0624Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 586 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 084
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20