Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/0012Z from Region 2918 (N22W95). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 02/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 280 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 089
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 088/088/085
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20