Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0730Z from Region 2918 (N22W81). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 01/1902Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 275 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 20/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 094
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 094/092/090
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20