Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 08/1250Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 980 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 077
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 078/080/082
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 006/005-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/30/30