Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0922Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 869 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (30 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 092
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 090/090/092
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 016/018-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/25/10