Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 18/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 079
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 078/080/080
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 009/012-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/25