Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 17/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10