Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 15/2100Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 15/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 15/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2753 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 079
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 080/078/078
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/012-012/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/10