Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 11/2202Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 895 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 083
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 083/081/081
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10