Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/2157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1711 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 088
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/086
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25