Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 05/2157Z from Region 2894 (S27E66). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 06/0132Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1633 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Nov, 08 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 082
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 085/085/082
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10