Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 November 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0301Z from Region 2891 (N16W13). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 02/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/2342Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached apeak level of 4 pfu at 01/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 097
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 097/097/095
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 011/014-021/030-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/35
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/75/55
