Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/0242Z from Region 2891 (N17E41). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 29/2012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at 29/0250Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 99/30/30
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 108
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 108/106/106
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 023/045-028/044-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor Storm 35/35/10
Major-severe storm 35/35/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 85/85/40
