Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 21/2233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 087
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 088/090/090
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10