Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/0526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 430 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 084
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/30
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/35