Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/0134Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 13/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 083
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 082/080/078
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 006/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20