Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1108Z from Region 2882 (N20E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 07/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 092
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/008-007/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/40